Round 18 · Context
Three HIGH picks, a heavy bye week
R18 is a compact round — 5 fixtures, 7 teams on the bye. Three picks this week earn HIGH classification, which is unusual: typically the model returns one or two. The Broncos and both Queensland/NSW Origin absentees have created pricing gaps the market hasn't fully adjusted to. Two fixtures (Panthers/Rabbitohs, Dragons/Wests Tigers) are excluded from the card — see below.
Three HIGH picks this round
Corey Waddell (Sea Eagles · 2nd Row · $4.75 BetRight · EV 1.43) — new selection, strong historical profile for a 2nd rower, soft defensive matchup. This is the round's headline pick.
Ben Hunt (Broncos · Halfback · $8.00 TAB · EV 1.42) — with multiple key Broncos absent, Hunt steps up as the team's primary attacker. Price looks slow to reflect his elevated role.
Jake Averillo (Dolphins · Centre · $2.60 BetRight · EV 1.24) — model rates his scoring probability well above market. Lower raw EV than the others but still clears the threshold with a meaningful gap to implied probability.
Best value pick of the round
Morgan Knowles (Dolphins · Lock · $12.00 BetRight · EV 1.91) — highest raw EV across all 9 picks. Classified LOW: lock position carries a thinner sample and the long price carries volatility. If you're playing a single speculative unit, this is the price to watch — but size it accordingly.
Two fixtures excluded
Panthers/Rabbitohs (Thu 3 Jul): kicked off before this card was published — excluded as DRAFT.
Dragons/Wests Tigers (Fri 4 Jul 17:30 AEST): model found no qualifying edges. Both squads have significant absentees (Wests Tigers missing Luai, Pearce-Paul, Geyer, Herbert) and the pricing gaps were within noise.
Round 18 · Highest conviction
3 HIGH-tier picks
These picks have real observed attacker history, soft defensive matchup, and positive EV at both best and conservative price. Recommended at 1 unit each.
| Player | Position | Team | Fixture | Price | EV | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Waddell | 2nd Row | Sea Eagles | Eels v Sea Eagles | $4.75 | 1.43 | BetRight |
| Ben Hunt | Halfback | Broncos | Broncos v Sharks | $8.00 | 1.42 | TAB |
| Jake Averillo | Centre | Dolphins | Knights v Dolphins | $2.60 | 1.24 | BetRight |
Round 18 · Match by match
Active fixtures
Three fixtures with picks logged. Panthers/Rabbitohs (Thu night) is DRAFT. Dragons/Wests Tigers (Fri 17:30) returned no qualifying edges.
Round 18 · Full pick list
All 9 picks
Sorted by tier then EV. Prices sourced from the-odds-api snapshot taken 2026-07-03. Check current prices before betting — markets move.
| Tier | Player | Pos | Team | Fixture | Price | EV | Book | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | Corey Waddell | 2nd Row | Sea Eagles | Eels v Sea Eagles | $4.75 | 1.43 | BetRight | 1u |
| HIGH | Ben Hunt | Halfback | Broncos | Broncos v Sharks | $8.00 | 1.42 | TAB | 1u |
| HIGH | Jake Averillo | Centre | Dolphins | Knights v Dolphins | $2.60 | 1.24 | BetRight | 1u |
| LOW | Morgan Knowles | Lock | Dolphins | Knights v Dolphins | $12.00 | 1.91 | BetRight | 0.25u |
| LOW | Jacob Saifiti | Prop | Knights | Knights v Dolphins | $11.00 | 1.65 | BetRight | 0.25u |
| LOW | Jermaine McEwen | 2nd Row | Knights | Knights v Dolphins | $6.25 | 1.53 | Ladbrokes | 0.25u |
| LOW | Taniela Paseka | Prop | Sea Eagles | Eels v Sea Eagles | $10.00 | 1.32 | PointsBet | 0.25u |
| LOW | Cameron McInnes | Lock | Sharks | Broncos v Sharks | $10.00 | 1.31 | BetRight | 0.25u |
| LOW | Nicholas Hynes | Halfback | Sharks | Broncos v Sharks | $4.10 | 1.27 | Ladbrokes | 0.25u |
Prices from the-odds-api snapshot 2026-07-03. Verify current price before placing. EV = p_cal × best_price. Stake: HIGH 1u · LOW 0.25u.
Round 18 · Caveats
What this is and isn't
Informational analysis only
These are model outputs, not financial advice and not a recommendation to bet. We don't know your financial situation. NRL outcomes are uncertain. Past model performance does not predict future results.
The model uses NRL player-level try-scoring history (BigQuery, R1–R17 2026 + full 2025) to estimate probability of scoring, then compares against market prices. Edges exist when the model probability exceeds the implied market probability by a margin that clears our threshold.
Known limitations R18: Panthers/Rabbitohs excluded — game kicked off before the odds snapshot. Dragons/Wests Tigers excluded — no qualifying edges found (significant squad disruption on both sides). Knights/Dolphins produces 4 of 9 picks — treat them as correlated within that fixture.