Friday v3 update · Pipeline re-run
Friday retrain logged 4 picks to the calibration trail for this fixture. Headline: Peter Mamouzelos (Rabbitohs, Hooker) at $7.50 — model 28.4% vs market 14.3% = +14.2pp edge. Read this as our biggest model-vs-market gap of the round, BUT LOW confidence: Rabbitohs hookers scored 0 tries in 10 games this season and our hooker calibration is unproven. Genuine model claim under test, not a confident edge.
Tallis Duncan no longer appears in this round's logged picks — our newer, more conservative read pulled him below our edge threshold. The Tuesday narrative's "borderline call on Duncan" is now stale; treat the call as four speculative Cowboys/Souths forwards + Mamouzelos.
The story of this game
The fixture with the most going on. Latrell Mitchell is out of the named 17, which forces Souths to rebuild their left edge mid-stride. The Cowboys' middle has been quietly improving and they get to play in front of a Townsville crowd that turns up. We have five of our eight picks in this game — which is a concentration risk we want you to know about, not paper over.
Two things to watch: how Souths cover Latrell's absence on the left edge in attack, and whether the Cowboys' forwards can win the wrestle. If the wrestle goes Cowboys' way, you'll see goal-line tries from forwards — and that's exactly the structure we're betting four of our cards on.
Our picks in this game
Tallis Duncan
Reed Mahoney
Peter Mamouzelos
Matthew Lodge
Sean Keppie
Notable for this game
- Latrell Mitchell out of the named 17 — significant for the Souths left edge attack.
- Tallis Duncan listed at centre (#4) for Souths — the rotation slot for the missing Mitchell.
- Cowboys naming a full-strength forward pack at home.
What to watch
Five picks here: Tallis Duncan at borderline, plus four speculative long shots from Cowboys/Souths forwards & hookers. Read the concentration warning before you size up — covariance is real.
Named 17 (per the team sheets)
Cowboys
- Scott Drinkwater (1·Fullback)
- Robert Derby (2·Winger)
- Jaxon Purdue (3·Centre)
- Tom Chester (4·Centre)
- Zac Laybutt (5·Winger)
- Liam Sutton (6·Five-Eighth)
- Jake Clifford (7·Halfback)
- Thomas Mikaele (8·Prop)
- Reed Mahoney (9·Hooker)
- Matthew Lodge (10·Prop)
- Heilum Luki (11·2nd Row)
- Sam McIntyre (12·2nd Row)
- Jason Taumalolo (13·Lock)
Rabbitohs
- Jye Gray (1·Fullback)
- Alex Johnston (2·Winger)
- Latrell Siegwalt (3·Centre)
- Tallis Duncan (4·Centre)
- Talanoa Penitani (5·Winger)
- Cody Walker (6·Five-Eighth)
- Ashton Ward (7·Halfback)
- Tevita Tatola (8·Prop)
- Peter Mamouzelos (9·Hooker)
- Sean Keppie (10·Prop)
- Euan Aitken (11·2nd Row)
- Keaon Koloamatangi (12·2nd Row)
- Adam Elliott (13·Lock)