Round 12 · Match Preview

Sea Eagles v Titans

Sat 23 May · 7:35pm AEST 🏟 4 Pines Park, Brookvale
Market (Tue → Fri)
Sea Eagles $1.25 → $1.27 (~negligible)
Favourite
Sea Eagles strong home favourites — ~79%
Our read
Agreed strongly — Manly by 15-20+. Outcomes model has +19.9 margin, win-prob 57.6% (the home-bias note applies here too, but margin is sane). Brooks remains the strongest player edge of the round.

Friday v3 update · Headline pick survives

Friday retrain confirms Luke Brooks as the round's strongest player edge. Updated numbers: model 29.7% vs market 25.0% = +4.7pp edge, $4.20 @ Ladbrokes, HIGH confidence. The market has firmed on him since Tuesday (edge compressed from +8.1pp to +4.7pp) but the call is intact. Two picks logged for this fixture.

The story of this game

Manly at home against a Titans side travelling without their first-choice spine. The market has Manly at $1.27 and we'd be shorter still. This is the kind of fixture where the headline outcome is mostly priced — value is going to come from the right player markets, not the H2H line.

Brooks at full minutes against a Titans defence that's been leaky through the middle. We expect Manly to have the ball for long stretches and that puts our headline tryscorer pick right in the fixture we like the most.

Our picks in this game

#1

Luke Brooks

Five-Eighth · Sea Eagles
Our strongest read of the round. Model ~32.5% vs market ~24.4% — an 8 percentage-point edge. Full unit.
$4.10 @ Ladbrokes
1.0u
HIGH

Notable for this game

What to watch

Our strongest pick of the round — Luke Brooks (Five-Eighth) — lives in this game. Full unit, our cleanest read.

Named 17 (per the team sheets)

Sea Eagles

  1. Clayton Faulalo (1·Fullback)
  2. Jason Saab (2·Winger)
  3. Josh Feledy (3·Centre)
  4. Reuben Garrick (4·Centre)
  5. Blake Wilson (5·Winger)
  6. Luke Brooks (6·Five-Eighth)
  7. Jamal Fogarty (7·Halfback)
  8. Taniela Paseka (8·Prop)
  9. Brandon Wakeham (9·Hooker)
  10. Ethan Bullemor (10·Prop)
  11. Jackson Shereb (11·2nd Row)
  12. Ben Trbojevic (12·2nd Row)
  13. Jake Trbojevic (13·Lock)

Titans

  1. Keano Kini (1·Fullback)
  2. Jensen Taumoepeau (2·Winger)
  3. Jaylan De Groot (3·Centre)
  4. AJ Brimson (4·Centre)
  5. Phillip Sami (5·Winger)
  6. Jayden Campbell (6·Five-Eighth)
  7. Zane Harrison (7·Halfback)
  8. Moeaki Fotuaika (8·Prop)
  9. Oliver Pascoe (9·Hooker)
  10. Klese Haas (10·Prop)
  11. Arama Hau (11·2nd Row)
  12. Beau Fermor (12·2nd Row)
  13. Cooper Bai (13·Lock)

18+Informational analysis only — not financial advice and not a recommendation to bet.

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